Introduction: -

BREAZE’s core objective is to help the Ballarat community achieve zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030. (Note that in this article I will simply use “emissions” to denote GHG emissions to make it easier to read). What does zero emissions mean and what will it take to get us there? Also 2030 is only 5 years away. How far have we progressed on this journey and how close are we to achieving this target?

It is worth clarifying what ‘Net zero emissions’ refers to versus ‘Zero emissions’. ‘Net Zero’ means achieving an overall balance between greenhouse gas emissions produced and greenhouse gas emissions taken out of the atmosphere whereas ‘Zero’ means just that – we reduce our emissions to zero. So Net Zero allows for offsets – ie we use carbon ‘sinks’ (such as a forest that is absorbing carbon from the atmosphere) to offset some of our emissions. Unfortunately, many of the offsets being used aren’t really offsets and, for example, in the case of forests being used as offsets many of these forests in Australia and other countries have been burnt by wild fires releasing all this saved carbon back into the atmosphere. As a result, BREAZE’s stated mission is to help the community achieve real zero.

So, let’s look at what Ballarat’s current emissions profile looks like and then we’ll explore some of the ways we can address this.

Ballarat community emissions

The Ballarat community is principally made up of domestic (household) associated emissions and industrial / commercial emissions. For the purposes of this discussion, we will focus on domestic or household emissions for two reasons: -

1. Domestic / household emissions are the largest component of Australia’s total emissions – around 60% of the total[i]. For Ballarat they are an even greater percentage[ii] – so households are the key driver of Ballarat’s emissions.

2. As individuals we have the greatest impact on our own household emissions. As a result, the decisions we make and what we choose to do can fundamentally change Ballarat’s emissions trajectory.

We also need to understand what makes up the bulk of our domestic emissions and hence, what we need to change in order to achieve BZE2030!

So, what do our emissions profile look like?

On a total Australia basis, the profile looks like the following[iii]:-

*Source: https://www.rewiringaustralia.org/report/castles-and-cars-discussion-paper*

It is interesting to note that household vehicles have greater emissions than electricity used in the home. Also, that our food choices have a significant impact on our emissions profile. This is largely driven by the way our current industrial agriculture system produces food (particularly animal products) rather than the animal itself. (A whole subject within itself - best saved for another article)

Now let’s look at energy consumption in the home. Although the average Australian household uses around 102 kWh of energy per day, Victorians use 120 kWh per day. In fact, the average Victorian home has the largest energy consumption of any Australian state or territory (including Tasmania). This energy use is heavily driven by heating needs currently fulfilled largely using methane gas (sometimes called natural gas – but there isn’t anything natural about it!) heating appliances (space heating and hot water) in homes. Given Ballarat’s climate, it is reasonable to assume that we would have higher energy consumption than the Victorian average but as I don’t have specific data for Ballarat currently let’s run with the Victorian average.

If we look specifically at household energy consumption then it looks a little like the following[iv]: -

Clearly the largest difference a household can make is to change out their fossil fueled vehicle. Either to an electric vehicle (and preferably charge using green power or your own solar) or to a more active form of transport. This impact is more than twice the size of any other single action. The next is space heating along with water heating and cooking which combined are more than a quarter of the total – or excluding the vehicle, around half of all remaining energy use. Also, these are largely powered by methane gas – so the ‘get off gas’ approach has significant benefits not only from household energy use, emissions and cost point of view but also from a health and safety viewpoint. Not only do we need to get off gas but we also need to install insulation and draft proof our homes which will significantly reduce our overall heating (and cooling) energy requirements in the base case.

But what about ‘Electricity generation losses’? What are they and what can a household do about those? Electricity generation losses are typically transmission and other losses in the grid system. (Note that there are significant losses in converting, say coal, into electricity in the first place with about 60% of the energy lost in this process (mainly as heat). In addition, there are also losses in the home – an incandescent light bulb loses ~90% of its energy as heat, whereas a LED light only loses about 10% of the energy as heat). By producing a large percentage of your own power (via solar) generation losses are minimized. So solar panels, once installed, not only produce virtually free power but significantly reduce the outside power requirements and hence generation losses associated with that grid electricity.

So, if we did all this what would our energy requirements look like then? The folks at Rewiring Australia estimated that Victorians could reduce their energy requirements to 42 kWh / day – or about 35% of current requirements

With any journey it is always good to get an understanding of the starting point. Where are we now?

Given the paucity of data for Ballarat specifically it is difficult to get a really definitive understanding of this. However, there is various publicly available data sources that give us an indication of where we currently stand: -

Home solar power.

*Source:* *https://pv-map.apvi.org.au/postcode*

Clearly Ballarat residents are missing out on the significant benefits associated with solar as compared to our immediate neighbors[v] (Moorabool has about half as many again and residents of Golden Plains have nearly twice the penetration of solar panels that Ballarat has). So only ~12,000 households of the ~50,000 households in Ballarat currently have solar. In many cases the payback period (ie when the savings cover the cost of installing the panels) is less than 3 years. After that solar power is essentially free – there is very little maintenance and are said to have at least a 20-40 year life.

From an emissions point of view there is also the grid losses that are avoided. So there is a double benefit with having your own solar.

Electric Vehicles:

*Source: https://discover.data.vic.gov.au/dataset/whole-fleet-vehicle-registration-snapshot-by-postcode*

At only 0.7% Ballarat has a very low EV (electric vehicle) penetration to date[vi]. To put this in perspective some Victorian postcodes have an EV penetration close to 15%. It would appear that there is a lot of opportunity and to some extent missed opportunities. Over 50%[vii] of households in Ballarat have two (or more) vehicles – the second vehicle often being used as a runabout town vehicle. And for this EVs are brilliant – very cheap to run and second hand EVs in particular are relatively inexpensive to purchase due to strong price competition from some of the Chinese brands which are now close to $30,000 new.

Fuel costs for an EV depend on whether you are generating your own (solar) power or using power from the grid. Typically, EVs use around 14 kWh / 100 km. If you are using grid power there is the opportunity to use the off-peak rate which, depending on your retailer, is around 20c / kWh. So, a 100 km trip costs about $2.80. If using your own solar and forgo the 3c/kWh feed in tariff then it ‘costs’ around 42c. The same 100 km in a small hatchback would use around 7L / 100 km and at $1.75 / L it would cost $12.25. Over a year, assuming 15,000 km travelled, the costs are around $420 using off peak grid power, $63 using your own solar, and $1850 using fossil fuel. The savings soon add up – over 5 years the respective amounts are $2100 for off peak grid power, $315 using your own solar and $9250 using fossil fuel – so savings of $7,000 to $9,000. For many people their current vehicle uses a lot more than 7L / 100 km so the fuel saving will be greater. But the savings don’t stop there - typically EVs are much cheaper to service – no complicated engine, transmission, or gear box to maintain.

Getting off gas:

From a report completed in mid-2022[viii] we know that at that time there were 52,970 households plus small and medium size commercial gas customers in Ballarat. There is also data[ix] released at about the same time that indicates that 80% of this is household demand. If small and medium size commercial customers on average use twice as much gas as the typical household then around 47,000 households (out of 50,000) in Ballarat are connected to gas – so about 94%. For most households this is used for home heating (20% of emissions), heating hot water (6%) and cooking (1.5%). Given that electric heat pumps are around 6 to 10 times more efficient than gas heating and about one third of the cost to run there is a huge opportunity to save money and reduce our emissions at the same time. On top of that gas has a number of detrimental health impacts. In his book ‘My Efficient Electric Home Handbook’ Tim Forcey states that “If gas wasn’t in our homes already it wouldn’t be allowed”. So, lots of good reasons to get off gas!

Scorecard:

If we look at where we are now and our target to reach zero emissions by 2030, we have many opportunities. If we focus on the three largest components outlined above, which combined account for over 90% of our emissions, then our current ‘scorecard’ looks something like the following. Hopefully we can update this from time to time to see how we are tracking against that goal.